Climate change, vulnerability and adaptation for South West Western Australia from 1975 to the present

Introduction

Luke Morgan, Senior Policy Officer at the Western Australian Department of Agriculture and Food, writes,

“Awareness and adaptation to climate change during the past 30 years has been emerging, with most sectors only responding in the last five to 10 years.  Most past responses focused on mitigating greenhouse gas emissions, but as the inevitability of climate change becomes clearer and world-wide attention shifts to adaptation, so too South West Western Australia's (SWWA's) sectors are considering how to adapt.”

Morgan suggests,

“The challenge for the future is to better understand what influences peoples’ decision making and to encourage them to change their behaviour based on new beliefs about climate change.  There is a need to bring science and the wider community together, and provide opportunities for people to understand the consequences of different actions, to question their assumptions, conclusions and beliefs, and encourage them to consider different perspectives.”  

The views expressed in this essay/article are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Global Cities Institute. Readers should note that Global Cities Institute seeks a diversity of views and opinions on contentious topics in order to identify common ground.

Climate change, vulnerability and adaptation for South West Western Australia from 1975 to the present

Climate change is the primary environmental threat facing the planet.  It is no longer a question of whether or not the climate is changing but rather how much it will change and how abruptly. Evidence is growing, and most of the world’s scientists agree that increasing greenhouse gases are warming the planet, causing higher global average temperatures, altered rainfall patterns and rising sea levels.

South West Western Australia (SWWA) has not escaped and is acknowledged as a highly vulnerable region to the impacts of climate change.  Its temperature is already 0.8°C higher than in 1910; however, the most notable impact is a 10 to 15 per cent reduction in rainfall since 1975, which has had a major impact on water supplies and industries such as agriculture.

But even though we now know SWWA has been affected by climate change, very little is known about how it has affected the region’s people and what their responses have been.

To prepare for climate change, communities, industries and governments world-wide are assessing how they’ll be affected by climate change, whether they can cope and what they need to do to adapt.  Western Australia is addressing these issues though the Western Australian State Greenhouse Strategy (2004), with one action (Action 5.5) being:

An integrated global climate and assessment strategy for SWWA will be prepared through collaborative action by the Australian Greenhouse Office, State Government entities, local governments, key stakeholders and the community.

The first part of this assessment has looked at impacts on communities, industries and the environment since 1975 – the time from which we now know climate impacts emerged.  This encouraged people to think about how they have already responded, and in turn determine links between their actions and climate change.

So far most people and industries are yet to explicitly address climate change, but they are becoming aware of it. However, looking at the past has revealed responses that can be considered implicit adaptations to climate change.

Climate Change for South West Western Australia

The Indian Ocean Climate Initiative (IOCI) is the key research body for assessing the nature and impacts of climate change on SWWA.  Its formation and work is unique and recognised nationally as an important step in helping Western Australia deal with declining rainfall caused by climate change.  IOCI has found that:

Temperature

Virtually everywhere in Western Australia has warmed during the last century, with the late 20th Century showing the most consistent period of warming.  Annual mean temperature throughout Western Australia has increased by about 0.8°C since 1910, with night-time temperatures increasing more than those during the day. While this may seem relatively small, a 1.0°C increase is equivalent to many southern Australian towns shifting northward by about 100 kilometres.

Rainfall

SWWA’s rainfall was once considered to be the most reliable of anywhere in Australia, with the region deriving much of its annual rainfall from passing cold fronts and associated storms.  However, annual rainfall has declined by about 10 per cent since the mid-1970s, with a noticeable shift toward drier winter conditions as the number of winter storms decreases and those that do eventuate bring less rainfall.

Projections for the future, suggest the influence of increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases will cause a further decline in rainfall due to higher pressures and fewer storms

Sea Level Rise

SWWA’s mean sea level has increased almost 20 cm (1½ mm/ year) since 1897, which is considered attributable to thermal expansion of the ocean due to global warming.  The major impact in Western Australia is on beach stability and potential inundation of low lying coastal regions under storm conditions.  Under storm conditions, sand is eroded from beaches and deposited offshore from waves and higher water levels cause by storm surges.  It is generally accepted that a one centimetre rise in mean sea level will be accompanied by a loss of about one metre of beach.

Impacts on People and their Responses

By talking to people throughout SWWA about their experiences and responses to climate change we found overwhelmingly they are generally aware of it as an issue but are yet to seriously address its impacts in their day-to-day lives.  Most people seem to have coped well with the climate changes we now know have affected SWWA during the past 30 years, but there are serious questions about our capacity to continue to cope in some places and industries.

Not surprisingly, the main issue driving responses to climate is declining rainfall, with those parts of the community that rely on steady water supply, such as agriculture and water utilities, having already adapted.  However, the impact of this decline on other parts of the community has been less immediate, and has only started to bite recently.  For example - sports grounds are being affected by water restrictions, native vegetation is dying, the nature of fire has changed, and there is increasing competition for water between domestic needs, the environment and industries such as horticulture and forestry.

While it’s difficult to detect many past responses to climate change, it is very much an issue on peoples’ minds for the future.  People are genuinely concerned about how declining rainfall and increasing temperature will impact on our health and lifestyle, how rising sea levels will affect coastal dwellings and infrastructure, and what impact will continued drought have on rural communities.

To address these concerns, people are realising that governments, industries, communities and the scientific community must come together to determine the future impacts of inevitable climate change and decide how to cope.

Water Resources

The climate variable mainly driving awareness of climate change is rainfall.  Sectors that heavily rely on water or manage water availability have clearly observed and responded to climate change.  For the foreseeable future, water will be the major resource impacted by climate change.  While there are a number of other issues that may be of significant concern in the future, such as the increased incidence of heat-related deaths and the impact of storm surges on coastal infrastructure; the water issue is with us now.

The water supply sector has explicitly responded and adapted to reduced rainfall caused by past climate change.  The 10 per cent reduction in rainfall has caused a non-linear 50 per cent reduction in streamflow, which has significantly impacted on surface and groundwater resources.  The State is investing directly in increasing surface water catchments and ground water supplies, and alternative water sources such as desalination.

These major investments are direct responses to SWWA’s recognised vulnerability to decreasing water supplies due to climate change, and the development of risk management strategies to cope with projected future climate change.  The water supply sector has a significant, ongoing investment in determining future water shortages as a result of projected future climate conditions.

Natural Ecosystems and Biodiversity

Climate is a fundamental factor in determining where species can survive and reproduce, the types of ecosystems that can develop in an area and the visual landscapes present in a region.  When the climate changes, it is inevitable that species, ecosystems and landscapes will be affected.

However, it is difficult to determine the impact of climate change on SWWA’s plants and animals, and the environments in which they live because there are so many factors that affect them.  Climate change impacts on ecological systems and biodiversity will be subtle but increasingly significant; for example they will include changed fire behaviour, a loss of wetlands, new pests and diseases leading to death of woodlands and the extinction of plant and animal species.

SWWA’s lifestyle values, water resources, tourism, fisheries, forestry and agriculture all directly depend on intact ecological systems and landscapes.  There are also important, though less direct, links between ecological systems and human health, sports and recreation activities, and infrastructure.

Agriculture

Implicit responses to climate change are most noticeable where climate is part of day-to-day decisions, such as in farming.  Farmers have gradually adopted new technology and management practices to cope with increasing dryness, and consequently almost without realising it have adapted to what is now recognised as long term climate change.  However, farmers were making these decisions to improve productivity, maintain competitiveness and adjust to the variability inherent in the climate system.

Also climate change has also been overshadowed during the past 30 years by more immediate concerns such as floods and soil erosion in the 1960s, drought in the 1970s, and soil erosion and sandblasting from wind in the 1980s, all of which took precedence over longer term considerations about changing weather patterns.

Unfortunately one image associated with Australian farming since the late 1990’s is that of a landscape parched by drought.  SWWA has not escaped with different parts of the region experiencing drought at various times between 1999 and 2006.  2006 was in fact SWWA’s driest year on record and many farmers’ experienced substantial crop and livestock losses, and many did not even bother to plant crops.  Extended dry periods have significant adverse effects on agricultural businesses and in turn the rural communities that rely on them.  If the drying and warming trends continue, agriculture could change substantially, with cropping becoming unviable over large areas, and farm profits in vulnerable areas significantly reduced.

Forestry

SWWA’s forestry sector has also gradually adapted to declining rainfall.  As rainfall has steadily declined the forestry sector has redefined the areas where commercial trees will grow, and over time come to realise that these changes are adaptations to a longer term climate change.  In the future, forestry could be significantly threatened by ongoing rainfall reductions, and other climate change impacts such as altered fire patterns, and increased pest, disease and weed incursions.

In more recent years the forestry sector has responded to international climate change policy, particularly the Kyoto Protocol, to determine opportunities for growing trees as carbon sinks.  The sector is working to determine the potential for various tree species to offset greenhouse gas emissions, which if planted in sufficient numbers can have the added benefits of mitigating land and water degradation.

The forestry sector has also recognised the potential for trees to provide an alternative, renewable energy source to fossil fuels through the production of biomass energy.

Fisheries

The fishing sector has observed little evidence of climate change impacts during the past 30 years, but is concerned about its potential future impact, particularly how it might affect the strength of Leeuwin Current off the coast of SWWA.  The strength of the Current is known to affect the life cycles and distribution patterns of a number of important fisheries.  Scientists worldwide suggest climate change will affect ocean currents as sea ice melts, ocean temperatures increase and sea levels rise.  A change to the Leeuwin Current could have serious implications for a number of valuable fisheries off the coast of SWWA, especially the Western Rock Lobster fishery, which is one of the nation’s most valuable fisheries.  It could also affect availability of several popular recreational fish species.

Furthermore, SWWA’s declining rainfall is of significance to freshwater fisheries, particularly marron (which has declined from around 120 tonnes a year in 1960 to 5.8 tonnes in 2003).  It also affects estuaries by reducing freshwater inflows, causing a buildup of nutrients that results in algal blooms, and ultimately fish kills and loss of habitat.  There is mounting evidence that vulnerable species of fish are becoming less numerous or are in danger of being lost from some SWWA estuaries.

Public Health

While it is widely recognised that climate change will have adverse effects on human health, its impact on people in SWWA during the past 30 years is difficult to determine.  There are so many variables affecting peoples’ health, lifestyle and well being that the impacts of rising temperature and declining rainfall are hard to isolate.  However, the sector is concerned about future climate change impacts, which in SWWA might include:

• increased heat related deaths, particularly among the very young and elderly;
• more deaths and injuries from increasingly fierce weather events such as cyclones and storm surges; and
• increasing incidence of diseases spread by insects such as Ross River Virus and dengue fever.

Rising temperature, declining rainfall and heightened sea levels will also affect peoples’ behaviour, potentially leading to increased disease risk.  Social changes can have significant adverse health outcomes, but the full effects of these may not be realised for many years.  Indirect impacts could arise from:

• increased use of air conditioners;
• increased use of mulches in gardens for water conservation;
• increased recreational inland water use;
• changes to land use and population displacement; and
• disrupted food and water supplies.

Tourism

SWWA contains some of the State’s most notable tourism destinations.  For example:

• Margaret River has developed a sophisticated image based on wineries, and the beauty of its forests and coastline;
• the wheatbelt is a drive destination focused on cultural and agricultural heritage, and seasonal wildflowers;
• the southern forests of Pemberton, Manjimup and Denmark, have a thriving tourism industry around national parks; and
• the coastline north of Perth to Geraldton is low key, coastal holiday destination for intrastate tourists from Perth and the wheatbelt.

The natural attributes of these places are key drivers for tourism and the impact of climate change on them could pose significant risks.  Tourism also brings influxes of people to communities, and with them flow-on benefits for other business and industries, particularly in regional areas.

Climate change appears not to have seriously affected SWWA’s tourism industry during the past 30 years, but its impacts are beginning to be felt.  It is considered a serious threat to the industry’s future; for example the dire predictions for Australia’s coral reefs due to rising ocean temperatures causing coral bleaching.

Widespread drought has seriously impacted on the tourism industry in parts of Victoria, with similar concerns emerging in SWWA.  Continued rainfall decline may impact on the environmental values of some key natural tourism assets and rural industries that have a mutually beneficial relationship with tourism, such as wine growing regions; the Swan Valley, Margaret River and Mt Barker.

Sport and Recreation

The sporting and recreational sectors have begun to observe climate change impacts in recent years.  Reduced rainfall has adversely affected grassed sporting facilities, particularly in regional areas, storms have damaged sporting infrastructure, and increased temperatures are changing the way in which people recreate and the times when they recreate.  Given the substantial investments made in sporting and recreational facilities, this sector is becoming especially interested in assessing future vulnerability to climate change.

Access to water for recreational purposes is also affecting recreational activities.  Seven of the 10 significant rivers between Perth and Bunbury have been lost to the community for sport and recreational use as a result of dam construction and the ongoing impact of climate change may enhance this trend.

During the past 30 years there has been a continuing population decline in rural areas and climate change is likely to compound and perhaps even hasten this trend.  This ‘urban drift’ will be a catalyst for reducing traditional sport and recreation opportunities and activities in these areas, and in turn increase the need for providing community infrastructure in Perth.  If and when this trend will stabilise is an important consideration for a number of sectors including sport and recreation.  In fact all human service-related sectors will be affected by this trend.

Settlements and Infrastructure

SWWA’s settlements have been relatively immune to major climate impacts during the past 30 years, although there have been some notable storm, flood and bushfire events during that time.  However, the region’s buildings, houses, ports, transport infrastructure and utilities may well be impacted by future climatic changes, and consequently Government planning agencies are beginning to take these impacts into account.

Future impacts are likely to be seen in:

• rising sea levels adversely affecting coastal dwellings and infrastructure, with around 90% of the region’s population living near the coast;
• increased damage from more severe storm and wind events;
• increased threats from more frequent and intense bushfires; and
• increased housing costs due to added expenditure on improving energy efficiency and thermal comfort.

The Government’s planning, infrastructure and utility sectors also see an increasing role for them in mitigating greenhouse gas emissions.  For example, through improving transport strategies, increasing energy efficiency, reducing and off-setting emissions from electricity generation, and investing in renewable energy.

Conclusions and Future Needs

Given ongoing prosperity and economic development, improved community health and wellbeing and a reasonably healthy environment, SWWA seems to have coped fairly well with climate change so far. This is not really surprising and similar to other affluent parts of the world where people, organisations and institutions can invest in systems and technologies that allows them to cope with a range of adverse factors, including the effects of climate change.  However, the extent to which people, industries and the environment can continue to cope is uncertain.

Awareness and adaptation to climate change during the past 30 years has been emerging, with most sectors only responding in the last five to 10 years.  Most past responses focused on mitigating greenhouse gas emissions, but as the inevitability of climate change becomes clearer and world-wide attention shifts to adaptation, so too SWWA’s sectors are considering how to adapt.

Because climate change is only beginning to be considered, its capacity to create conflict has not yet been fully revealed. As sectors begin to develop strategies to increase coping capacity, conflicts may emerge about decisions to protect one resource, asset or industry over another.  Debate about declining water supply and possible responses highlights how climate change can generate conflict, with varying community, industry and political opinion about the merits of new water source developments such as desalination and groundwater extraction.

What to do next…

This study has found that many people can relate experiences or observations to climate change. However, because it is such an overwhelming issue they conclude that they cannot do much about it, and in any event have more pressing shorter term imperatives to deal with. As a result they adopt a view that government will do something, or they’ll continue to cope or adapt when they need to.

The challenge for the future is to better understand what influences peoples’ decision making and to encourage them to change their behaviour based on new beliefs about climate change.  There is a need to bring science and the wider community together, and provide opportunities for people to understand the consequences of different actions, to question their assumptions, conclusions and beliefs, and encourage them to consider different perspectives.

This can be achieved through an ‘integrated assessment’ of SWWA’s future vulnerability to climate change.  Such an assessment brings knowledge from various disciplines and groups to evaluate a problem from different perspectives and provide support for its solution. This will support better decisions, and help identify desirable solutions.

NOTE

A report on this issue titled Climate Change, Vulnerability and Adaptation for South West Western Australia 1970 to 2006 (draft), A report to the Western Australian Government and Australian Greenhouse Office is currently being finalised by the Department of Agriculture and Food, Western Australia, and should be available soon.

Compiled by Luke Morgan, Senior Policy Officer, Department of Agriculture and Food with input from the Action 5.5 Sub-committee comprising the Departments of Agriculture and Food; Environment and Conservation; Fisheries; Health; Housing and Works; Planning and Infrastructure; Local Government and Regional Development; Treasury and Finance; Sport and Recreation; Water; and Tourism WA; the Forest Products Commission; the Water Corporation and Verve Energy

Information about the author

Luke Morgan is currently a Senior Policy Officer with the Department of Agriculture and Food, Western Australia (DAFWA).  Luke is working on developing a State natural resource management (NRM) plan and implementation strategy to guide State and regional NRM planning, investment and reporting. He has also been involved in bilateral negotiations with the Commonwealth on implementing ‘Caring for Our Country in Western Australia’, and previously in negotiations on the National Action Plan for Salinity and Water Quality (NAP) and Natural Heritage Trust (NHT). Luke also worked on helping to prepare the State’s plantations and farm forestry strategy. With regard to climate change, Luke coordinated an interagency committee in Western Australia to implement Action 5.5 of the Western Australian State Greenhouse Strategy, which involved an integrated assessment of South West Western Australia’s vulnerability and responses to climate change from 1975. He also prepared the regional NRM strategy for the State’s rangelands region, which now guides priority setting and State and Commonwealth NRM investment in the region.
Contact details: LMorgan@agric.wa.gov.au

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